On Monday, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley cited channel checks and a customer intent survey as the basis for predicting the potential for iPhone sales to fall by as much as 2.9 percent over the next year, reaching a total for 2016 as low as 224 million in a “worst case scenario.” The idea of “Peak iPhone” generated clickbait headlines, but the real story is that channel checks have historically been extremely worthless at predicting Apple’s actual performance. Peak something Even in an imagined “worst case scenario” for Apple, Huberty predicted the company’s revenues would still climb by 2 percent, despite lower iPhone sales, due to new revenues from Apple Watch and other sources. That means Apple would remain the most profitable phone maker and the largest vendor of premium smartphones in the tier of iPhones. While Huberty’s report was exaggerated and presented out of context by a number of sites, there are also some key problems in the data itself. As noted by Philip Elmer-DeWitt of Fortune , Morgan Stanley’s data was based on channel check estimates by Jasmine Lu, who covers the Asian supply chain for the bank. Lu’s component orders estimate described a 10 percent cut in… Read full this story
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